Sign in to follow this  
CrazyElf

Are we about to see NVMe PCIe SSDs come down in price this year?

Recommended Posts

Are we going to see a flood of NVMe SSDs this year?

I think we've reached the point now where there are going to be more mainstream SSDs.

I am hoping that the price premium goes away (ex: price per GB is comparable to say, an SSD 850 Pro). I would like to see 4k Rnadom @QD1 performance go up.

The new drives look plenty fast too - RevoDrive 400:

OCZ-Benchmarks-pic2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I assume the two traditionally value-driven 3rd party controller makers (and sometimes mainstream), Phison and Silicon Motion (SMI), are both at it... IIRC they've already previewed 'em at CES, at least from the articles I saw at Anandtech. (SM2260 for Silicon Motion, PS5007-E7 for Phison)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Generally speaking what we'll continue to see is a bifurcation of the market where vendors drive further cost out of TLC drives while upping capacity, making many HDDs for client systems obsolete in the 2.5" form factor. At the same time we see more M.2 NVMe stuff on roadmaps as primary drives for workstations, ultra thins, etc. We see very little ground between the two for a third option. IN terms of performance specifically, I'd tell you to expect progressive improvements, there's probably not a SATA to NVMe type leap coming in the immediate future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess what I am saying is, I'm hoping to see a day where:

  • High end SSD: 3D NAND NVMe SSD is similarly priced per GB to a SATA3 equal (like the 850 Pro) - right now for example, the 950 Pro costs around 50% more per GB than the 850 Pro
  • Low end SSD: Probably TLC NAND with a slower controller has a similarly priced NVMe option

I'd imagine that even low end controllers and NAND will be bottle necked by SATA3 at some point.

The only big leap that I can see in terms of performance maybe outside of the SATA to NVMe leap is the mainstream adoption of RRAM. That will start to happen around 2020? By mainstream, I mean not just a few high priced enterprise, but a drive, say whatever replaces the 850 Pro, as an RRAM based drive?

Edited by CrazyElf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'd imagine that even low end controllers and NAND will be bottle necked by SATA3 at some point.

They already are today... but it's not just the matter of a bottleneck as much as does the bottleneck impact the end user experience/end user's willingness to pay more...

At some point the price premium will decrease as we're all hoping, at least the price premium for jumping to NVMe everywhere (obviously a price difference between high-end and low-end SSDs will remain).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there anything that causes the price premium other than volume?

I mean, let's compare, say a U.2 SSD to a SATA3 one - the components are similar - controller, NAND, etc. The only thing is the interface, which I suppose does command a premium. Is there anything else? Are NVMe controllers more costly?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a good question...there's also the question or margin, vendors may be able to demand a higher price because they can, which is critical to their margins that get squeezed as a product nears commodity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'd be interesting to see what the margins are.

  • I bet that the lower end SSDs (like the BX series from Crucial, OCZ's Trion, etc) are more or less breakeven - only there for the volume.
  • Perhaps mid-range ones as well. Let's define mid-range as say, SSDs like the 850 Evo, or some of the MLC ones.
  • Then top end SATA like the 850 Pro probably have a fair bit of margin. How much more expensive is MLC die over TLC? Right now the 850 Pro is around 40-50% more per GB than the Evo (although it depends on what capacities).
  • I would imagine that right now, NVMe SSDs like the 950 Pro, the Intel 750, etc have some margin.

Of course Enterprise SSDs have even more margin on top of that going at 2x per GB or more.

Will we end up with say, lower end NVMe SSDs with TLC and then high end ones with MLC and top notch controllers?

Edited by CrazyElf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this