SeanC

Is Moore's Law Dead?

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near the end of the each year, we usually updated our workstations (audio / video production house) and get about a 50 percent processor speed increase. One year ago we bought a Dell Dimension 8250 Pentium 3.06 ghz. One year prior we had a 1.5 ghz, before that a 800 mhz, etc.

As I look at Dell's site, they're up to a 3.2. Not much more bang for the buck compared to a year ago.

Have things slowed in the processor development?

Sean

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Well its is an average of transistor count increase not clock speed. Clock speed alone means very little.

Moving from .13 microns to .09 microns has proven difficult.

If you don't have your heart set on dell, get a duel opteron system. It will be significantly faster than the P4 in a dual.

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Hah!!! One of my pet peaves!

*ahem*

**** Old Fogey semi-Rant ahead ****

The *real* Moore's Law deals with the "commodity" of processing power, not the power of *a* processor. The price and power of processors are corollaries, if you will.

He proposed that processing power (transistor count) *could* double every year and half (or thereabouts), therefore driving down the cost of processing power in general ( maybe you could measure it in $/MFLOP?). The end result would be more people would have affordable processing power and processors would be more integrated into our lives.

Soooooo while the popular Moore's Law seems to have hit a wall (really it's just a blip), the *real* Moore's Law is being proven daily in the cell phone & set top box markets. (The chips in those things are real CPUs, ya know. ;) )

******

I think we've been off the doubling of power routine for a while. How long did it take the P4 to be twice as powerful as a PIII (Tualatin)?

But Intel may be back on track with the Pentium M....and AMD definitely bumped the curve with the Opteron.

So we're still in the race, but now we've got a different horse in the front.

DogEared

8^)

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Moore's law really wasn't a law since it was twisted so thoroughly over the years. Originally, I believe it was that the number of transistors in a processor would double every X number of months. Over the years, X number of months would change to match the current trends. Hardly seems like a law. In addition, it was twisted to mean not just the number of transistors, but also shrinking of the manufacturer process, performance, Mhz, drive capacity, etc...

Its like Parlay. Their not really rules as much as they are 'guidelines'.

Joo

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If I recall correctly, Moore's law states that computing power doubles every eighteen months--not once a year. I can say with total certainty, however, that it has nothing to do with the clock speed at which processors operate at. Lastly, clock speed would be a poor indication of overall performance anyhow. Intel released the Pentium M, which runs at a fraction of the clock rate of P4's, yet does a comparable amount of work.

Good paper on the subject:

http://www.arstechnica.com/paedia/m/moore/moore-1.html

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We are definitely having difficulties to increase the speed of proccessors.

If you pay attention, much of the increased speed has been achieved through increased thermal dissipation. So it is not a genuine improvement imo.

New proccessors next year, will be above 100 watts with air cooling.

I bet soon they will introduce standard watercooling equipment, and heat dissipation over 200Watts.

Also, note that a 2GHz proccessor is enough for the average citizen. You can play audio-video easily with 2 GHz. In other words, there is no high demand for faster proccessors. Then, there won't be heavy investments for that market, and the progress slows down.

Hard disks, on contrast, are still improving capacity at a steady pace. People need more and more storage. There is demand, and companies are ready to invest there.

New commodities around the PC will also be demanded, like mobile phones, cameras, etc. There will also be progress here.

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Its all too lucky for him to state "processing speed", but not "MHZ speed"; he is afterall a bad employee by todays measure ;)

For a P4 to to double the performance of a PIII, all it takes is to stop updating the PIII speed grades :lol:

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See: Moore's Law for those who can't be bothered actualy find out what Moore'ls Law is really about.

I believe that his observations will run true for the next few years, until such time that we are dealing with transistors the size of a few atoms connected together by nanotubes passing photons (instead of electrons)...

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New proccessors next year, will be above 100 watts with air cooling.

Semes like the power of chips has taken the

lead over humans (60W at system level).

And yes chips are lot faster than a human brain

but will it ever be as sophisticated (and sometimes

as attractive; )?

/casa

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interesting. Maybe we should wear a heatsink on top of the head? :D

Do you know the heat dissipation of the whole body (resting/full load)?

I once did a calculation, and the human body dissipates more than 1 Kilowatt at full load (doing exercise). do you know precise figures?

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interesting. Maybe we should wear a heatsink on top of the head?  :D

Do you know the heat dissipation of the whole body (resting/full load)?

I once did a calculation, and the human body dissipates more than 1 Kilowatt at full load (doing exercise).  do you know precise figures?

Heatsink may be fine in tropical conditions

during daytime or crowded partys but mostly

we tend to dissipate more than we want (and

thus isolating and keeping warm in other ways).

I have no scientiffic clue on this matter tho...

/casa

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Hard disks, on contrast, are still improving capacity at a steady pace. People need more and more storage.

Really? Most people will be hard pushed to fill a 40 GB hard disk. Speed, noise and cost are more important than capacity these days.

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yes, if you have audio-video files.

a mpeg2 movie fills 1 to 5GB.

High resolution video is 8 times bigger.

More GB are welcome.

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yes, if you have audio-video files.

a mpeg2 movie fills 1 to 5GB.

High resolution video is 8 times bigger.

More GB are welcome.

Q: And how many people do this?

A: Few.

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thanks to all...I'm sorry I framed it in a Moore's discussion. I do realize it's 18 months, and deals more with the transistor count instead of the mhz (or ghz!) of a processor.

My general observation was that "things ain't that much faster" than one year ago.

It does seem that the rate of processor speed increases has declined quite a bit over the past year.

Sean

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New proccessors next year, will be above 100 watts with air cooling.

Semes like the power of chips has taken the

lead over humans (60W at system level).

And yes chips are lot faster than a human brain

but will it ever be as sophisticated (and sometimes

as attractive; )?

/casa

No, It is almost a generally observed fact in the scientific circle that unless major and substantiable invention/breakthro. has taken place, AI is almost unlike to imitate even the primitive life form of today. :unsure:

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Things have slowed recently. Back in late July I built a pretty decent 2.8/800FSB box. A couple of weeks ago I priced it out and the price drop for the components totaled to about 15%. Capacity, compute power, memory bandwidth, storage capacity and peripherial performance hasn't changed much at all over the last six months. In the 15ish years I've been in this industry this is the longest lull that I recall.

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Hard disks, on contrast, are still improving capacity at a steady pace. People need more and more storage.

Really? Most people will be hard pushed to fill a 40 GB hard disk. Speed, noise and cost are more important than capacity these days.

I filled nearly 40 of 80 total GB of my latest HDD in less than a year, on applications alone. Most of that is games, of course.

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Mmm, 40Gibby is not at all much...

ME doin lottsa "non MIDI" audio recordings

and after a while all the different "must keep"

shoots on a single track adds upp quite.

Luckily all the projects don't have to be on

disk all the time : )

/casa

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I'm talking about normal people, not SR regulars...

Oh. Well, yeah, I guess we enthousiasts push storage a bit further than the average Joe. Assuming he doesn't download movies/mp3s or store digital pictures/movies.

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See: Moore's Law for those who can't be bothered actualy find out what Moore'ls Law is really about.

I believe that his observations will run true for the next few years, until such time that we are dealing with transistors the size of a few atoms connected together by nanotubes passing photons (instead of electrons)...

Thanks for the link. I love the last bit regarding (paraphrased a bit) "someday ICs may be able to handle microwave frequencies....phased-array RADAR."

and components on "two thousandths of an inch spacing."

I remember watching his presentation on film (at least one of the presentations) - probably about 10 years after the paper was published. It really made you believe in that whole "house of tomorrow" idea.

Just the idea that someday average people would use computer chips in their daily routine! Chips would be so cheap and so powerful, new types of electronics would be sold at the super market! It really was unimaginable -- except to the few. LOL!!!

I was reading today about how labs are working on producing discreet components with a spacing within 10 *angstroms*!! DAMN!! Angstroms!!

I suddenly feel old. Going back to my rocking chair... B)

DogEared

8^)

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