So you think in € and I think in $. Either way my statement of twice the price per GB versus LTO4 includes the cost of the drive not just a blank media. If you have a $3000 drive and you archive two tapes a month for a 3 year period then the cost of using LTO4 isn't $0.05/GB it is $0.10/GB. If you only archive 1 tape per year the cost per GB is $1.3 about 25 times higher. If you archive less tapes per year the price per GB goes up, if you archive more tapes per year the price per GB goes down.
So for the small shop, casual user, and what not LTO is too expensive as they can just buy $70 hard drives and get $0.10/GB or better at much lower initial costs.
For those types of users SSDs only have to become less than twice the cost of a hard drive or somewhere under $0.50/GB and they'll stop using hard drives for off site storage. How many years do you think that will take?
For users that use dozens of LTO 4, LTO 5, LTO 6 per year (yearly archives, quarterly archives, monthly archives, weekly archives) yeah the LTO tapes will be half the cost of hard drives and then you can work out the math between hard drives and SSDs.
While there is a wall coming for reducing feature sizes .25nm isn't the way they name the node size wall. 22nm processes are coming online very soon. Additional cost savings can come by increasing wafer diameters or creating larger factories or more factories it doesn't have to be all about new process dimensions.
While we are on the topic of predicting the future lets talk unit share.
Right now there is a price premium on SSDs due to scarcity. If you could somehow make every hard drive on the planet disappear instantly there wouldn't be enough SSDs to replace them.
Flat out, not enough SSDs on the planet to replace all the hard drives on the planet.
Until that fact changes there will be a price premium on SSDs. Now in the enterprise space there are uses where one SSD can replace 10 hard drives. So we don't have to have 1 SSD for every hard drive. At home you may need 1 SSD to replace two hard drives if you are the type to do RAID 0 with a couple of raptors. The vast majority of the world though will need 1 SSD for every hard drive replaced as they don't use more than one hard drive in their Desktop, laptop, or other device.
So lets say on the grand scale we need 1 SSD for every 1.5 hard drives we want to retire.
2010 unit shipment forecast for hard drives is 674.6 million drives (up over 20% from 2009 if the estimate is accurate). The first number I found for SSDs says 11 million drives in 2009 (with expectations of 90% growth in units).
As SSD supplies increase their price premium will drop. Eventually the units shipped for hard drives will decrease instead of increase. Eventually SSDs will see growth rates higher than 100% year over year as a massive transition occurs. But for now lets imagine what it's like if HD units decline by 10% a year while SSD units double per year. Where does that line cross? It takes about 6 years at that rate. How about if HD units drop by 10% a year while SSD rates triple each year, in that scenario it takes about 3 years to even up on the per year unit rate.
Articles like http://www.fabtech.org/editor_s_blog/_a/wheres_the_fab_capacity_needed_in_2010/ discuss a shortage of wafers in the industry which will artificially constrain SSD growth rates until 2011 and I am no soothsayer. I don't know how quickly SSDs will ramp. I do expect them to eat into HDs in the near future and I do expect when they become reasonably priced people will stop backing up to hard drives and instead backup to SSD.